The world will be watching closely as the summit unfolds — and so will we!
First things first: What is COP29?
This week, the 29th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (the UNFCCC, which many of us know as “Climate COP”) kicked off in Baku, Azerbaijan.
COPs are annual negotiation summits convening representatives of countries party to the UNFCCC. They serve at once as the decision-making platform and body of the UNFCCC that, along with the accords born at COP each year, set the tone, rhythm and level of ambition for technical and implementation work that continues year-round.
While countries negotiate updated, consensus-based COP agreements each year, other actors also facilitate, observe, and otherwise participate in UNFCCC COPs. They include representatives of international organizations to observers from the nine non-governmental organization “constituency groups,” from the press to non-party individuals nominated as members of (with privileged access to) national delegations (an entry strategy increasingly used by fossil fuel lobbyists).
Why is COP29 important for Canada?
COP29 gives us important insight into the direction the global community is moving in and, based on how Canada acts inside and outside negotiations, whether Canada plans to build on growing momentum or risk being left behind.
As Canadians grapple with the increasing threat of climate change — facing costs of more frequent and severe wildfires, deadly heat weaves and flooding, and inflation driven in part by overdependence on fossil fuels — it has never been clearer that we also stand to lose if swift, ambitious, and coordinated action on climate change isn’t taken. Successful negotiation of a strong agreement at COP29 — one that secures a significant new climate finance objective to drive mitigation (via a just transition), adaptation, and power the loss and damage fund — will be a critical step in keeping our common future climate-safe.
But that’s not all Ecojustice is watching out for at COP29.
What to watch for at COP29
- Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): COP29 is the last COP before the February 2025 deadline (set by the Paris Accord) for countries to submit their new and upgraded (read: ramped up) NDCs for 2035 (scroll down to learn more about NDCs below). Currently, Canada’s NDC stands at 40-45 per cent emissions reduction with respect to 2005 levels by 2030.
- Climate Finance: Negotiations around the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance are starting up as, per the Paris Accord, it’s time to update the current global climate finance goal. The current goal stands at USD$100bn per year from developed countries to developing ones and has only been met once (in 2022). As climate-fueled extreme weather disasters hit more and more countries, estimates put global climate finance need at over USD$1.3tn per year. Beyond determining “how much,” questions that this COP could begin to answer include: from which countries, international organizations or private finance sectors, to which countries, through which financial instruments, from loans to grants to concessional financing, and funding what mix of need — mitigation (via a just transition), adaptation (for which funding is sorely needed), loss and damage. (Read more about a critical policy tool, currently before the Senate, that Canada can use to massively scale up climate-aligned finance below)
- Greenwashing, fossil fuel lobbyists’ oversized presence at COP29 and, most troublingly, on national delegations: In recent COPs, dangerous precedents have been set, effectively shrinking civil society’s access to negotiation spaces while fossil fuel lobbyists’ access has been growing. As members of Canada’s Climate Action Network, we support their call for “a strengthened UNFCCC Conflict of Interest Policy to protect against influence from harmful polluters including fossil fuel-dependent industries and agro-industrial multinationals.”
Our questions for Canada at COP29 and beyond
Here are three big questions we have for the federal government at COP29:
1. Boosting climate finance is critical, but what do we do about unsustainable finance and how do we hold big banks and financial institutions accountable for pouring billions of dollars into the fossil fuel industry?
The Problem: Instead of investing in building a climate-safe future, Canada’s financial giants continue to knowingly pump billions of dollars into the fossil fuel industry. In fact, Canadian banks are among the worst financiers of oil, gas, and coal globally (with Canada’s top banks pumping a combined $103.85 billion USD into fossil fuel projects globally in 2023). To put matters into perspective, if Toronto’s Bay Street was a country, it would be the 5th largest climate polluter in the world!
What are we looking for? While much of the COP29 climate finance focus is on public finance, the world’s private financial sector has an essential role to play in funding a just and equitable transition to a climate-safe future. But absent climate-aligned finance policy in what a UN sustainable investment group called a “low regulation jurisdiction,” Canada’s financial sector continues to prop up the fossil fuel industry, greenwash its investments, and fund climate collapse.
Our federal government must show leadership and implement robust policies that hold financial institutions to account and align our financial system with our climate commitments, which could help direct much-needed financial investment flows to our urgent climate mitigation needs.
We need the government to pass new laws like the Climate-Aligned Finance Act, which would require big banks, pension schemes, and insurance companies to align their business with a livable climate, unleashing the power of private finance to be part of the solution (not the problem).
What we’re doing about it: We’re fighting to hold Canada’s financial institutions accountable.
2. What’s Canada’s plan for a fossil fuel phase-out?
The Problem(s): Canada is overly dependent on fossil fuels, and keeping a climate-safe future in sight requires transitioning away from them — as much was agreed upon by nearly 200 countries, including Canada, last year at COP28. Even the International Energy Association has found that no new oil, gas, or coal projects can be built if the world is going to be able to reach net-zero by 2050. All levels of government must stop approving new and expanded fossil fuel projects — projects that produce more coal, oil, and gas and lead to increased carbon emissions.
Projects like…
- Thermal Coal Exports: Canada often tries to position itself as a climate leader, but our record on fossil fuel exports — in particular, on coal — paints a different picture. Each year, Canada exports millions of tonnes of thermal coal for consumption aboard. In fact, despite the federal government calls for “powering past coal,” our thermal coal exports have increased over time, surging to their highest levels last year. Coal is a relic of the 19th century — with no place in a climate-safe future. Science has made it painfully clear that coal is the “single largest source of global temperature increase,” with the International Energy Agency finding that coal is still responsible for a staggering 30 per cent of global carbon emissions.
- Fracked Gas Projects: In the latest chapter of their playbook, the fossil fuel industry is expanding fracked gas to be exported as liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a “climate solution,” and desperately trying to sell us on the idea that it’s the clean, low-carbon future of the fossil fuel industry. In reality, the emissions from more fracked gas will put climate targets out of reach, pollution and environmental impacts from fracked gas harm local communities, and the promised economic benefits are uncertain. British Columbia is the frontline of this expansion, with new fracked gas production wells, pipelines, and LNG export terminals. According to the BC Energy Regulator, in British Columbia the average frack uses between 10 million to 70 million litres of water — in a province where approximately 61 per cent of its area under drought conditions in August 2024. Once we account for water and air pollution, methane emissions from gas extraction, impacts to endangered species like woodland caribou and salmon, and the carbon impacts of transporting, shipping, and burning fracked gas, it’s clear that fracked gas is not a “climate solution” at all.
What are we looking for? It’s time to prioritize people and the planet over profits. Instead of greenlighting new climate crisis-fueling projects (like fracked gas wells, pipelines, and LNG terminals) and exporting coal around the world, forward-looking governments must look to accelerate a fair and equitable transition toward a net-zero economy.
If we want our record to match our rhetoric, we must immediately stop exporting coal to the rest of the world. And we must invest our dollars into real climate solutions, instead of false ones like fracked gas.
Help make it happen:
3. What will Canada’s new emissions reduction target be?
Some context: Canada is expected to announce its new emissions reduction target for 2035 by December 1st as part of its obligation under Canada’s Net-Zero Accountability Act and submit its (similar) Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) before February 2025 as part of its obligation under the Paris Accord.
NDCs are commitments that countries make to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as part of the Paris Agreement. Each country outlines specific goals, actions, and timelines for addressing the climate crisis, reflecting its national circumstances, resources, and capabilities. NDCs can include things like targets for reducing emissions, plans to enhance renewable energy investment, and efforts to support climate-resilient communities.
Canada’s new NDC provides a framework to demonstrate our commitment to achieving global climate goals, and also shows progress we’re making (or lack thereof). This transparency helps build trust and encourages collaboration among nations, as we ultimately contribute towards a collective goal of limiting global warming and mitigating the impacts of climate change. The emissions target that Canada sets in its NDC will be adopted as our national climate target for 2035.
The (big) problem: Not only are Canada’s climate targets weaker than our fair share of emissions reductions to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement (capping global heating to well below 2°C), but Canada has consistently failed to meet these targets. Despite meagre progress and ambitious-sounding declarations, the government has not implemented sufficient measures to close the emissions gap; the 2023 federal progress report on climate action concludes that Canada will miss its 2030 target. In fact, another damning report from Canada’s Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development highlighted 30 years of failure to meet targets and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Publicizing more ambitious targets without a solid plan to meet existing ones is not enough: follow-through is essential.
Canada also has some of the highest emissions in the world. Despite a comparatively tiny population, Canada ranks in the top ten in the world for cumulative emissions, meaning that we are disproportionately responsible for the climate crisis. This is not only true now, but it has been true throughout history. Wealthy countries like Canada, that have emitted the most historically, have both the best means and a moral responsibility to reduce their emissions. We are more able than most to manage the cost of a fast but fair transition away from fossil fuels.
But there’s more. The fossil fuels we export don’t count towards our national emissions. Despite Canada’s commitments to reducing emissions at home, Canada exports most of its crude oil and just under half of its fossil gas — with exported emissions rising a shocking 58 per cent from 2012 to 2023. The data show a stark contrast between Canada’s rhetoric as a climate leader and its record. In 2023 for the first time, CO2 emissions produced from Canada’s fossil fuel exports surpassed a billion tonnes, at 1,030 million tonnes, significantly eclipsing the country’s domestic emissions estimate of 702 million tonnes for the same year.
What are we looking for? We need to set ambitious targets and actually follow-through in meeting them. As one of the world’s highest emitters with significant historical responsibility, Canada must cut emissions domestically. We must also wind down our fossil fuel exports, which contribute massively to global emissions and overshadow our domestic emissions reductions. Addressing these issues is vital for Canada to shed its reputation as a “climate laggard” and play a responsible role on the global stage.
We need emissions targets that are ambitious, equitable, and science-based, and follow-through to meet them. Our governments cannot continue to keep setting goals that they claim are ambitious, and yet still fail to meet them.
Learn more about the seven youth applicants we are helping hold their government accountable:
In communities across Canada, and around the globe, people are demanding more. To defend the safety and well-being of people across Canada and around the world, we need Canada to step up as a climate leader, set science-backed climate targets and must follow through to meet them. In Canada, it’s the law.
We’ll be watching.
